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Retail sales remained elevated in March as core retail sales rose 4.1 percent over the past year. Emerging wage growth, with average hourly earnings up 2.7 percent over the past year, coupled with consumer confidence at the highest level in 16 years form a positive outlook for the year ahead...
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Wage growth, rising consumer confidence and a pickup in entry-level buying contributed to a 12.8 percent annual gain in new-home sales in February. Purchases of lower-priced properties drove the overall increase, signaling the gradual return of first-time homebuyers. Demand...
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A positive economic outlook motivated the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points. The Fed’s confidence has improved significantly over the past 12 months given the tightened labor market and steady retail sales growth. Rising Fed Funds do not necessarily...
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Retail sales remained elevated in February, with core retail sales vaulting 4.4 percent over the past year, driven by three significant trends. Consistent job growth has added 2.4 million workers over the past year, wage growth is averaging 2.3 percent annually and consumer confidence...
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Healthy job creation in February illustrates a labor market riding considerable momentum. Job growth is bolstering commercial property performance improvements at a time when some uncertainty hangs over commercial property sales...
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Low inventory is restraining sales of existing single-family homes, which rose in January by just 3.7 percent from last year. Despite an uptick in listings, the supply of available homes for sale held firm at a record-low 3.6 months. Healthy demand for homes lifted the median price 7.3 percent year over year...
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Gov. Daniel Tarullo recently announced his resignation from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, effective in early April. With two positions already vacant, President Trump now has the opportunity to fill three of the board’s seven seats, making his mark on the central bank. Additionally, the president...
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Consumers followed up robust holiday spending with equally impressive activity in January as core retail sales vaulted 4.4 percent over the past year. Consumer confidence remains near the highest levels of the past decade, reflecting heightened expectations for economic conditions and sentiment. This positive outlook...
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Broad-based and robust hiring during January extends last year’s labor market momentum. Other indicators were also positive last month and show a tight labor market, imposing a potential headwind for employers this year. The shrinking labor pool and potential misalignments of skills required to fill open positions may moderate...
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Wage growth and rising household formation are generating healthy demand for housing. The for-sale market is stuck in neutral, however, as tight supply, rising mortgage rates and upward pressure on existing home prices have muted growth. Limited for-sale inventory and lifestyle changes favoring renting are keeping ...
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The employment market consistently signaled steady economic growth last year despite numerous unanticipated events that could have upended the expansion. Nationally, 2.2 million jobs were created during 2016, with unemployment dropping to its lowest level since 2007. The economy has generated 75 straight months...
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The post-election bump on Wall Street has supported a rise in confidence from 87.2 in October to 93.7 for November, the third highest monthly gain since the end of the recession. Rising consumer optimism was evident in November’s 3.7 percent year-over-year growth in core retail sales, which was well above the 2.2 percent yearly average from the previous 12-month period...
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The Federal Reserve raised its overnight rate by 25 basis points to a range from 0.50 percent to 0.75 percent. This decision reiterates the positive economic outlook for 2017 that could accelerate monetary policy in the coming year. Rising interest rates will remain a significant factor in the commercial real estate market that could force asset repricing...
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The pace of hiring in November serves up the latest evidence that U.S. payrolls continue to expand at a steady pace and measures of labor market slack are also tightening. With the U.S. economy on track to add 2.2 million jobs during 2016, the path for the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark short-term lending rate later this...
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The labor market maintained a healthy pace of growth in October and measures of labor market slack tightened. Last month’s hiring and growth in the average hourly wage raise the probability that the Federal Reserve will lift its benchmark lending rate in December in an effort to avert an acceleration in inflation...
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For-sale housing inventory fell to a decade low during August, and limited housing stock along with strong demand for homes are beginning to encourage homebuilders to shift their focus from larger, luxury homes to smaller, entry-level housing. This change could provide some relief to the supply-constrained...
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Hiring in September reaffirmed that job creation is moderating from the elevated levels of the past two years. The downshift to a more tempered pace likely reflects a shortage of qualified workers as unemployment hovers near 5.0 percent. Accelerated wage gains offer some evidence that employers...
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While household incomes rose notably during 2015, overall retail sales never shifted into the same high gear, possibly suggesting a more prudent stance toward consumption among American consumers. Yet, outlays for non-necessity items such as sporting goods, hobby stores and big-ticket items...
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Commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) financing slowed dramatically in the first half of 2016 as volatility roiled the debt markets. In addition, new rules governing CMBS issuance that take effect at the end of this year also created uncertainty in the marketplace. However, the first CMBS offerings...
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The U.S. labor market produced a “Goldilocks” moment in August: Hiring was neither too hot nor too cold. Modest payroll growth last month reaffirms the sound state of the U.S. labor market and raises questions regarding whether the Federal Reserve needs to raise its benchmark interest...
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Existing single-family home prices marked moderate gains in July, moving back into alignment with the pre-recession peak. Though home prices ticked up, existing home sales dipped for the first time since November 2015 as limited available inventory weighed on further progression...
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A sizable gain in e-commerce sales last month further illustrates the emergence of Internet-based commerce as a substantial force that is prompting a response from shopping center owners and developers. The continuing migration of sales online and shrinking footprints of many retailers are encouraging...
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Exceptional payroll growth in July and upward revisions to job gains in the preceding two months underline the persistent strength of the U.S. economy, which is now in its seventh year of expansion. Secondary indicators of labor market activity, including unemployment claims, the unemployment rate...
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The rise of Internet shopping as a destination hub is reshaping the economy, steering spending toward new sellers and platforms as product selection, delivery times and convenience improve. The ascent of this trend is spawning the creation of Internet-based businesses and pressuring traditional retailers to adapt as mobile...
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The substantial jump in hiring during June to the highest monthly level this year suppresses talk of a sharp slowdown in job creation and strongly reaffirms that the U.S. economy remains on a growth track. Although last month’s survey occurred before the unexpected outcome of the Brexit vote, secondary employment...
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A modest advance in sales activity during the month of May put additional strain on for-sale inventory as the single-family housing market seems to remain caught in a loop that continues to prevent many prospective homebuyers from making a purchase. Sales of existing single-family homes are rising, but the low level of homes...
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Positive demographic trends continue to generate demand for an array of goods sold through physical and online retail destinations, supporting an increase in retail sales over the past year. While baby boomers and millennials spend money in different ways, the combined two groups account for more than...
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Contrary to polls and predictions, citizens of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, creating uncertainty that induced a sharp decline in global equity markets. The British currency fell dramatically, boosting the value of the U.S. dollar, and the quick re-deployment of capital to safer assets pushed...
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The increase in sales of previously owned homes and new single-family residences in April illustrates growing demand for owner-occupied housing and the improving ability of prospective homebuyers to save for downpayments and handle monthly mortgage obligations. Interest rates on residential mortgages remain near...
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Declining unemployment claims and job openings near an all-time high point to an expanding labor market, not one that is losing momentum as suggested by weaker-than-anticipated job creation in May. The slight gain in payrolls, however, offers the Federal Reserve an opening to withhold a rate hike this month and delay...
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Solid hiring across multiple employment sectors in April did not produce a large gain in U.S. payrolls, but the increase nonetheless reaffirms that the labor market remains in sound condition. Other labor market trends, including a low level of initial unemployment claims and an elevated number of job openings, indicate...
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Housing demand remains elevated as low mortgage rates have helped keep the cost of ownership in check despite steady appreciation. The solid pace of hiring over the last six years and modest but consistent wage growth have helped prospective homeowners repair their balance sheets and re-engage...
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U.S. consumers continued to play an active role in creating economic growth in the first quarter, lifting core retail sales, which omits gasoline and automobiles, at a steady but moderate pace. With manufacturing, exports and business investment softening in response to a strong U.S. dollar and with reduced activity...
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A solid burst of hiring last month culminated a strong first quarter for the U.S. labor market. Brushing off stock market volatility early in the year and softness in overseas economies, employers added 628,000 workers to payrolls in the first quarter, exceeding the total recorded in the first three months of 2015. Other labor market...
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A limited for-sale inventory and inclement weather combined to suppress sales of existing single-family homes last month. While job growth continues to generate new housing demand, the limited available listings are precluding many prospective homebuyers from making purchases. The dip in February sales...
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February’s retail sales results reflected the significant Wall Street and international economic turbulence that started off the year. The weaker than anticipated retail sales figure revealed generally greater caution among consumers for the month, but this modest pullback could ease in the coming months. Questions surrounding...
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Employers hired at a brisk pace in February, once again serving notice that the U.S. labor market continues to shrug off lingering global economic uncertainty and softness in oil and gas industries. Jobs were created in multiple service sectors of the economy and at government agencies during...
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Shaking off inclement weather in many parts of the country and the post-holiday doldrums, consumers headed to stores in vast numbers and frequently logged onto online retailers’ websites to drive up retail sales in January. Last month’s gain, plus an upward revision to the initially reported drop in...
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The pace of hiring slackened in January following three months of outsize growth. New additions were made in a broad range of employment sectors and reduced the unemployment rate to its lowest level since early 2008. The performance of the job market, together with the new reading indicating the number...
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A substantial increase in supply ignited a steep decline in the price of crude oil over the past year. U.S. crude inventory has increased more than 20 percent since year-end 2014 and OPEC members continue to pump at elevated levels in an attempt to weaken U.S. producers. The supply glut and downward price pressure...
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Increases in several retail categories were insufficient to offset weather-related factors and avert a minor drop in retail sales in December. For the entire year, however, retail sales increased, illustrating the continuing resilience of the U.S. consumer and providing the Federal Reserve confidence to normalize...
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U.S. employers pushed ahead with hiring plans in December to top off a strong year of job creation. The vigor of the U.S. labor market evident throughout 2015 will enable the Federal Reserve to place greater weight on inflation trends in guiding its monetary policy decisions this year. Nonetheless, a chaotic opening...
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Retail sales expanded moderately in November, highlighting the strength of the U.S. consumer. Price-driven declines in gas station spending were offset by gains in online sales, food services and other discretionary spending categories, helping to allay any fears about a slowdown in the economy. The Federal Reserve’s decision to gradually raise...
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The U.S. economy passed a major psychological threshold as the Federal Reserve closed the door on the extraordinary measures put in place to combat the financial crisis. With the quarter-point increase of its overnight lending rate, the Fed signaled that the economy has finally returned to normal operating levels. Though some sectors...
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