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Market Report

Oakland Industrial Investment Forecast

2019 Outlook

Bay Area Strength Ushers In Cycle-High Supply Growth; I-880 Corridor Draws Developers, Investors

 

After years of limited construction, influx set to reach market. The broad strength of the Bay Area has propelled years of job creation, boosting standards of living and spending power. These gains have raised the profile of East Bay industrial assets, which offer significant discounts to similar properties in other portions of the region. As a result, consistent net absorption and minimal supply growth pushed vacancy below 4 percent as recently as mid-2018. Rent growth has also rapidly advanced, vaulting more than 120 percent since bottoming in 2011. These gains will be challenged moving forward, with supply injections set to reach a new cycle high above 4.5 million square feet this year as developers target sites primarily along the I-880 Corridor. More than two-thirds of this year’s additions will be located between Hayward and Milpitas, highlighted by the Pacific Commons and Pacific Commons South projects in Fremont, which contain more than 1.7 million square feet collectively in Fremont. Rent growth will be heavily determined by the incentives deployed by developers to fill a pipeline that skews mostly speculative, with less than 600,000 square feet currently pre-leased.

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