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Resilient Suburbs and Slowing New Supply Signal
Turning Point for Rent Growth
Suburban demand holds as development moderates. After record- high deliveries over the past year, inventory expansion will slow substantially in the latter half of 2025. Completions in the final two quarters will nearly match the average pace during the 2014-2019 period. This shift comes at a critical time. Population growth has started to wane, particularly among individuals aged 20-34 — a key renter cohort —which grew at roughly half of its historical quarterly rate in early 2025. Meanwhile, demand dynamics are uneven across the metro. Southern suburbs like Baymeadows and St. Augustine continue to see the highest levels of net absorption. Yet at the same time, the urban core faces the lowest net absorption level and an inventory set to grow over 8 percent by year-end.