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Tech Growth and Permitting Slowdown
Boost Austin’s Long-Term Potential
Corporate expansions align with ongoing historic supply wave. In 2025, Austin will remain one of the nation’s fastest-growing metros for both employment and population, fueled by an influx of young professionals and large corporate commitments. Upcoming high-profile developments, such as Samsung’s forthcoming $17 billion semiconductor plant in Taylor and X Corp.’s newly designated headquarters in the metro, are laying the groundwork for future employment growth and housing demand. In the meantime, the established presence of Tesla’s 1.4 million-square-foot battery facility in East Austin provides ongoing employment opportunities. Developers are counting on these dynamics to aid leasing velocity for the roughly 24,000 units slated to come online this year. Considering the size of this year’s delivery slate, representing 7.4 percent of existing stock, concessions usage — which rose last year — should continue to be frequent among newly built properties. For that reason, meaningful rent growth is unlikely to resume until late 2025. As the supply wave crests early in the year, demographic tailwinds and steady in-migration should maintain demand. Beyond 2025, supply pressures are expected to ease notably, as a broad pullback in multifamily permitting is materializing.