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Broad Demand Headwinds Not Strong Enough
to Curtail Occupancy, Especially in the City
Slow inventory growth remains a key element. Chicago’s supply risk will stay limited in 2026, as completions hold near last year’s subdued level and the construction pipeline, as a percentage of inventory, remains among the smallest nationally. Population decline, weak net in-migration, and modest job gains may weigh on absorption, but limited relocation options should keep renter turnover low. With renewal conversion rates reaching a multiyear high of over 60 percent in early 2026, fewer units are likely to return to market. As a result, vacancy should rise only marginally by year-end.