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Fewer Arrivals Aid Upper-Tier
Fundamentals, Drawing Investor Interest
Oakland hits an inflection point with tightening vacancy. Leading the Bay Area in post-pandemic workforce recovery, the metro experienced an uptick in renter demand in 2024, with favorable conditions expected to carry over into 2025. Demand was widespread last year — seven of the nine submarkets reported declining vacancy as metrowide net absorption reached its highest level since 2021. With 2025 development focused in Fremont and the Oakland-Berkeley area, 2024’s vacancy tightening trend should continue this year. Oakland-Berkeley’s inventory has grown over 15 percent since 2018 — the highest among submarkets — but mild development beyond 2025 should allow for gradual absorption and rent stabilization. Class A vacancy remains lower than Class B or C here, suggesting new luxury supply is being well-absorbed. Elsewhere, Class B assets see the tightest vacancy, especially in the Fremont, Concord- Martinez and San Ramon-Dublin areas. Here, the notable rent gap between Class A and B units underscores demand for mid-tier options from those priced out of luxury rentals.