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Market Report

Orange County Multifamily Investment Forecast

2020 Outlook

High Home Prices and Income Disparity Create Foundation for Long-Term Demand

Supply additions dip amid tight conditions. Apartment availability adjusted nominally over the past six years as newly penned leases outpaced the delivery of 21,000 units over that span. In 2020, the metro’s median household income will approach $100,000, but a significant gap between a mortgage payment and average monthly rent exists. The high income will continue to aid leasing activity at newly built complexes, while strong leisure and hospitality hiring with typically lower-paying jobs will sustain demand for Class B and C apartments. With Class A vacancy at its lowest point this cycle, an influx of new rentals is needed, yet delivery volume trails the prior five-year average by 1,400 units. Upcoming properties are large in nature, averaging 300 doors, with supply additions concentrated in Santa Ana, Irvine and Anaheim. In these locales, vacancy could rise on a short-term basis; however, the metro’s overall vacancy rate holds at or below 4 percent for a seventh straight year, ranking Orange County as one of California’s tightest markets.

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