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San Francisco Aligning to a More Favorable Path,
Aided by Construction and Migration Trends
Renter demand improving. Despite the many challenges that the market has encountered since the health crisis began, including the net loss of about 100,000 residents, roughly 11,000 more apartments are occupied today than in 2019. Unlike in the other major Bay Area metros, San Francisco has recorded consistently positive net absorption since 2020. Renter demand is generally increasing, albeit not at a pace to match construction. Approximately 14,000 apartments have been added to the metro since the end of 2019, contributing to elevated vacancy. New supply pressure is letting off, however, as this year’s pipeline is less than half the 2020 or 2021 count. This has translated into improving vacancy among Class A rentals, the segment most exposed to new supply. The metro’s Class A vacancy rate in June was 9.1 percent, less than half its 2020 peak of 19.8 percent.