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Drop in Tech Sector Wealth and Supply
Drive Occupancy Gains in San Jose
Rent growth leads in core Silicon Valley submarkets. San Jose remains one of the least vacant multifamily markets nationwide, supported by limited land availability and elevated home prices that continue to push demand toward rentals. This constrained supply growth, paired with numerous high-paying tech jobs, supports one of the strongest rent-growth projections among major U.S. metros for 2026. Submarket performance remains uneven: Mountain View, Palo Alto, Los Altos, and North Sunnyvale — the heart of Silicon Valley — posted near-3 percent vacancy rates in late 2025, with rent growth exceeding 6 percent year-over-year. In contrast, East and South San Jose, which have notably lower median household incomes, saw rent increases below 2 percent. These trends of divergence are expected to continue in 2026 if tech momentum holds, though a broader sector slowdown could disproportionately affect the metro due to its concentrated employment base. Still, the steep drop in apartment deliveries — with the 2026 pipeline just 10 percent of 2025’s volume — should help stabilize multifamily fundamentals even if demand softens, particularly in supply-constrained submarkets.