Tampa-St. Petersburg Multifamily Market Report
2024 Investment Forecast
Rental Deluge Warranted as Tampa Ranks
Among the Top Markets for In-Migration
Deliveries peak, paving the way for demand to catch up long term. Responding to a strong inflow of new residents that reduced metro vacancy to the low-2 percent range, developers broke ground on a host of apartments in Pasco County and Tampa proper during 2021 and 2022. Approximately 7,900 of those units will come to fruition this year, capping off a historic run that began in 2018. Fortunately, Tampa’s Class A vacancy rate was on par with its long-term average at the end of last year, and recent in-migration trends are expected to continue through 2024, translating to demand for new units. A high-2 percent unemployment rate will play a role in supporting the latter dynamic, as it will require growing firms and those that have recently relocated to the area to hire from outside the market with increased frequency. Further brightening the outlook for soon-to-be delivered units, a pullback in starts appears underway, partially driven by rising local insurance costs. With only a handful of projects slated for 2025 delivery at the onset of this year, this pullback could limit supply additions after 2024, suggesting incoming inventory should be absorbed over time.