Tampa-St. Petersburg Multifamily Market Report

Transitioning conditions take shape. Tampa’s apartment market is rebalancing as shifts in supply and demand take hold. On the demand side, select submarkets, such as Hernando and Pasco counties, continue to attract an outsize share of new residents. But the broader slowdown in Sun Belt in-migration is evident in the metro, which is projected to post its slowest annual population growth since 2011. This cooling has already contributed to sharply reduced net absorption figures in the second half of 2025, following six consecutive quarters above 2,000 units. The trend was most apparent in Class B/C assets, as Class A properties recorded a steeper vacancy decline in 2025, despite all tiers remaining in the 5 percent to 6 percent range heading into 2026. On the supply side, slowing deliveries should bring relief to areas that faced heavy construction in recent years, including West Pasco County-Hernando, the Peninsula, and South St. Petersburg. Conversely, submarkets such as Central Tampa and New Tampa-East Pasco County will continue to see elevated completions, likely pushing local vacancy rates higher through 2026. In both cases, however, no deliveries are currently scheduled for 2027, offering a more favorable longer-term outlook.