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Policy Tailwinds in Store for Sales Market as Supply, Employment Concerns Abate
Select submarkets shrug off labor market challenges. The metro’s job losses last year weighed on leasing, but not enough to fully reverse vacancy rate reductions from 2024. Federal workforce cuts have also had second-order effects on white-collar firms that employ Class A/B renters, reducing professional services positions by slightly more than government jobs were reduced. However, fewer roles are projected to be shed in 2026, and some submarkets, such as North Central D.C. and the Reston-Herndon area, have already seen declining Class A/B vacancy rates under these pressures. That momentum may continue this year. Separately, a handful of areas may benefit from acute supply pullbacks. In the Navy Yard-Capitol Hill South submarket last year, new supply pushed the vacancy rate into the 6 percent band. A nearly blank slate due in 2026, however, will give existing properties a reprieve. The Hyattsville-Riverdale area and Bethesda-Chevy Chase will also see this dynamic, though at a smaller scale. This should help mid- and upper-tier properties sustain occupancy levels even as the metro navigates ongoing headwinds.