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Corporate Growth in Suburbs Tightens Vacancy; Transfer Tax Shifts Private Investment Strategies
Cost-efficient secondary hubs anchor gradual office recovery. After two years of declining vacancy, the metro’s office landscape should continue to improve as construction remains limited and older stock is repositioned. Lower-cost suburbs may outperform after Bergen, Morris, and Union counties each saw vacancy fall by at least 100 basis points in 2025. Kenvue and Selective Insurance establishing headquarters near Summit underscores the growing appeal of noncore locations to tenants. Conversion projects have further supported fundamentals in Morris County, after more than 600,000 square feet of stock was removed from Parsippany’s inventory in 2025, pulling availability rates back toward pre-pandemic levels. Jersey City and downtown Newark have lagged amid softer leasing and tenant consolidations, though greater economic clarity could lift space needs. A growing film industry may also bolster office leasing as enhanced state incentives support studio investments by Paramount in Bayonne and Lionsgate in Newark.