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Market Report

Cincinnati Retail Investment forecast

20222 Outlook

High-Paying Job Creation Tightens Employment Gap;
Reuse Plays Highlight in Retail Sector's Transformation

Cincinnati leads Ohio markets in job gains as redevelopment tightens vacancy. The metro's professional and business services sector has already surpassed a full recovery and is expected to carry overall job creation this year. Growth in higher-income job segments will bolster discretionary spending, pushing retail sales to a projected 28 percent above 2019's volume. This should result in an enhanced need for retail space among vendors at a time when removals are altering the sector's property stock. The metro's substantial demolition and conversion activity will counterbalance an uptick in construction this year, significantly reducing the impact of retail space coming online. Nearly 1 million square feet of space was taken off the market in the second half of 2021, including the 130,000-square-foot Skytop Pavilion demolished in favor of a multifamily development. The approved redevelopment of the Tri-County Mall will remove an additional 1.3 million square feet, as the property will be converted into a mixed-use lifestyle center, featuring a heavily reduced amount of retail space.

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