Raleigh Retail Investment Forecast
Sound Fundamentals Brighten Long-Term Outlook;
Investors Target High-Quality Assets Across the Metro
Retail sales to grow at nation-leading pace. The metro has been one of the fastest growing in the last decade, driven by corporate arrivals and prominent high-level academic institutions. This expansion continues in 2022 as the Triangle is expected to gain 26,000 citizens in net migration, spearheaded by high-wage employers like Google, Apple and Fidelity. These factors and a nearly 3 percent increase to the metro's median household income contribute to anticipated retail sales growth of nearly 13 percent year over year in 2022, a figure larger than what is expected in any other major market. Beyond this, 28 percent of the population falls in the 25- to 44-year-old cohort, which correlates with family formation, an additional positive for retail spending. Builders and vendors are responding, with roughly 1 million square feet of space slated for finalization this year, nearly 90 percent of which is pre-leased. Strong demand for newly built space and the recent repurposing of older malls into mixed-use assets are positioned to steer expanding retailers to a smaller inventory of available space, supporting tight conditions in 2022.