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Market Report

San Francisco Retail Market Report

2024 Investment Forecast

Retail-Residential Connection Fueling Market’s
Stabilization as Local Buyers Find Opportunities

Recovering household count, incomes bolster retail landscape. While certain property types in San Francisco continue to lag the nation in post-pandemic recovery, the metro’s retail sector is gathering momentum. A key to this shift is population growth, which resumed in fall 2021, following a year of net out-migration. Many areas of the market are benefiting from this trend, including Downtown, where apartment vacancy in certain neighborhoods has returned to pre-2020 lows. San Francisco also led the country in median household income growth last year, nearing 10 percent. A rising number of households, paired with climbing incomes, bode well for the market’s retail outlook. Vacancy in the city, excluding Downtown, continues to hold under 5 percent, with even tighter conditions in South San Mateo County. While high-profile retailer exits in Downtown San Francisco last year pushed vacancy above 10 percent, the greater resident count should encourage improving foot traffic. A rising number of international arrivals at SFO also supports tourism spending both in and outside the metro’s core. 

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