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Market Report

Tampa-St. Petersburg Retail Market Report

2024 Investment Forecast

Exceptionally Tight Conditions Downtown and in
Eastbound Suburbs Accentuate Metro Strength

Tampa ranks among U.S. leaders in several metrics. The market entered this year on the heels of significant momentum. Local single-tenant vacancy was tied for the fifth lowest among major U.S. markets in 2023, while multi-tenant rent growth ranked as the second-fastest nationally. Population gains, which drove this progress, have taken a mild step back, however, amid a pandemic-era surge in Tampa’s cost of living. The residual aftereffects of interest rate hikes on business expansion also play a role in net absorption dipping to about half of the five-year average. Nevertheless, softer tenant demand will be offset by modest construction as Tampa ties for the slowest supply growth in the Sun Belt. Metro vacancy will hold within the 10 tightest major U.S. markets this year as a result, nourishing a top five pace of rent growth. Central Tampa, the I-75 Corridor, East Hillsborough County and Polk County lead the charge with collective vacancy of 2 percent at 2024’s onset. An influx of young adults downtown, household creation in east suburbs and reduced flood risk inland all aid tenant demand here. 

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