Tampa-St. Petersburg Retail Market Report

Demographic tailwinds intact amid closures. Since 2020, Tampa’s population has expanded by nearly 8 percent, placing the metro among the top 15 major markets for growth and fueling retail space demand. During the same period, annual inventory growth averaged just 0.7 percent — below the metro’s long-term norm of 1.0 percent — helping vacancy stay near historic lows in the 3 percent range as of the end of 2024. In the first half of 2025, however, vacancy rose to 4.0 percent by July, as nationwide bankruptcies prompted closures. Macy’s, Big Lots, Walgreens and Party City were among the retailers returning space to the market, leading to two consecutive quarters of negative net absorption to start the year.