GDP Research Brief
Recession Call Elusive as GDP Declines
Against Strong Labor, Property Markets
GDP contracts, but other economic indicators in the green. Real gross domestic product declined at an annualized rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter, following the 1.6 percent decrease posted in the opening three months of the year. While two consecutive quarters of falling GDP is considered by some to be the technical signal for a recession, the actual state of the economy is more complex. The April to June GDP drop was predominantly driven by declines in business investment and personal expenditures on goods, while the value of U.S. exports and spending on services increased. The added services consumption is supported by a tight labor market, which added 2.7 million jobs in the first half of 2022 amid already low unemployment.