Inflation Research Brief
Inflation Accelerated in June, but
Forward Indicators Suggest Relief Ahead
High inflation persists, but pressure may ease. The Consumer Price Index advanced 9.1 percent year-over-year in June, its fastest pace since November 1981. Accelerated inflation was predominantly driven by higher energy and food prices. Excluding those two categories, core CPI inflation was 5.9 percent last month, a slowdown from the March high of 6.5 percent. While a widespread shortage of raw materials, finished goods and labor continue to push up prices, some relief may be ahead. Global shipping delays have eased, and the costs of various commodities are trending lower, including oil and wheat, which were heavily disrupted by the war in Ukraine. This situation could still reignite inflation and cause additional economic turbulence, but the recent positive trends imply that supply chains are adjusting.