GDP Research Brief

Growth in GDP returns for the third quarter. Real gross domestic product increased by a 2.6 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, reversing the declines posted in the first half of the year. This turnaround was predominantly driven by improved net external trade, as exports rose 14.4 percent and imports fell 6.9 percent, a dynamic that is unlikely to continue. Economic concerns abroad and a strong U.S. dollar will weigh on export activity, while the drop in imports — a benefit to the GDP calculation — is nevertheless a signal of weakening domestic consumer demand. Other GDP contributors fell, most notably a 26.4 percent drop in fixed residential investment. Paired with less anticipated government spending, these signals point to more temperate GDP growth in the coming quarters.