Canada GDP Research Brief
GDP Growth Beats Expectations, Outlook
Softening; CRE Remains Well-Positioned
Economic growth continues for fifth consecutive quarter. GDP rose 0.7 per cent in the third quarter, translating into a 2.9 per cent annualized gain, beating the general consensus of 1.5 per cent. Exports, specifically oil, as well as business investment in inventories, fueled economic expansion. These drivers, however, were moderated by declines in housing investment and household spending. Rising borrowing costs and elevated inflation are slowing the housing market and prompting consumers to tighten budgets. While the economy performed better than expected, further moderation in GDP growth is anticipated in the coming quarters. Commercial real estate, however, remains well-positioned to weather a short-term economic slowdown, as robust underlying fundamentals exist for almost all asset types. Additionally, muted investment activity may also be nearing its final stage as more broad-based indicators hint toward a softening in interest rate hikes.