Canada Retail Sales Research Brief
Household Spending Losing Momentum;
CRE Able to Weather Short-Term Slowdown
Retail sales remain sluggish. Consumption neared $62 billion in October, a 1.4 per cent monthly increase, or 6.5 per cent annually. After accounting for price growth, however, total volume remained unchanged as inflation-adjusted sales struggle to obtain momentum. October’s gains were likely a byproduct of elevated gas prices. Preliminary estimates for November suggest that sales are expected to decline by 0.5 per cent. If these estimates come to fruition, consumption may be heading toward its second consecutive quarterly contraction, making a potential recession in the first half of 2023 more likely. Canada’s commercial real estate sector, however, remains well positioned to weather a short-term economic slowdown.