Retail Sales Research Brief

Slowing rate of inflation a welcome sign. Core retail sales in the last month of 2022 were up by 7.2 percent year-over-year. Despite a notable upward stretch, spending may be softening. December’s retail sales volume was a step back from recent months, a potential signal of the challenges facing consumers in the year ahead. While overall cash savings is some $4.4 trillion above the pre-pandemic mark, not every household was able to set aside funds. These opposing winds may create choppiness in the months ahead. A positive for both consumers and retailers alike, however, is that the softness in sales also contributed to a decline in the headline CPI figure last month. While prices on goods and services were still up 6.5 percent for the year, the pace is slowing.