Inflation Research Brief
Core Inflation Cooling but Still High,
Supporting Likely Fed Rate Hike
Inflation continuing to trend down. The headline consumer price index climbed by 3.0 percent year-over-year in June, the smallest increase since March 2021. A 16.7 percent decline in energy costs helped slow the overall inflation rate to a third of its June 2022 peak. However, prices for other categories of consumer goods and services, such as housing and medical care, continue to ascend. Core CPI inflation, which omits more volatile food and energy costs, rose by 4.8 percent year-over-year in June. While also down from a previous peak of 6.6 percent last September, core inflation is still above both the headline rate and historical norms. Resolving these core pricing pressures will take time, given the structural nature of the underlying challenges, but positive signs are emerging.