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Special Report

Canada Employment Research Brief

July 2024

Further Cracks in Labour Market Lend Support
to Additional Interest Rate Cuts

Labour market continues to loosen. Canada’s economy lost 1,400 jobs in June, well below the consensus estimate of a 25,000 position gain and marking the second monthly contraction in just four months. Hiring intentions remained weak, as elevated borrowing costs continued to work their way through the broader economy. Not only are some measures of job vacancies now below their pre-pandemic levels, but hours worked also fell 0.4 per cent monthly. At the same time, the number of active job seekers across Canada increased by 40,400 last month, on the heels of still-elevated population growth. These factors combined to lift the unemployment rate 20 basis points to 6.4 per cent, up 160 basis points from the July 2022 trough. This further easing in labour market conditions lends support to an additional interest rate cut at the Bank of Canada’s July meeting, which would likely continue to foster growing investor enthusiasm in the commercial real estate sector.

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