Retail Sales Research Brief

Sector registers rare achievement. For the third consecutive month, consumers set a record for core retail sales, exceeding pundits’ expectations. Consumer resiliency translated to a 3.4 percent year-over-year rise in spending during July, with sales up in real terms even after factoring in core CPI inflation. Gains were widespread across retail segments, with nine of 10 core categories notching annual spending increases, ranging from 0.4 to 6.7 percent. This performance is noteworthy for property owners and retailers alike, as the last time this occurred was August 2022. Still, potential headwinds have emerged that could impact households’ spending power moving forward. Hiring nationally has slowed and total household debt was at an all-time high of nearly $17.8 trillion at the onset of July. Furthermore, in June, the U.S. personal saving rate fell to its lowest reading since late 2022.