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Special Report

Canada Employment Research Brief

October 2024

Labour Market Beats Expectations, But Underlying Trends Remain Soft

 

Multiple factors at play in labour report. Canada’s economy added 47,000 jobs in September – well-above the consensus estimate of a 27,000 position gain. At the same time, the unemployment rate edged down 10 basis points to 6.5 per cent, which is the first drop since January. In September, labour gains were largely fuelled by a 33,000-position jump among youth ages 15 to 24. This could partially be attributed to slower hiring among this age cohort over the summer, prompting fewer workers to leave their positions at the start of the school year. Although Canada’s labour market surprised to the upside, underlying indicators continued to suggest ongoing economic weakness. Hours worked fell 0.4 per cent monthly, job openings kept lowering, the employment rate stayed on its downwards trend and average hourly wage growth eased to a 16-month low of 4.6 per cent year over year. As a result, it is still almost all but guaranteed that the Bank of Canada will continue its monetary easing cycle over the remainder of the year and into 2025.

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