Canada Housing Research Brief

Housing outlook has taken a turn. The Bank of Canada began its rate cutting cycle in June 2024, which has since pushed mortgage rates down from the 6.0 per cent to 7.0 per cent range to just above 4.0 per cent as of April. The combination of lower borrowing costs and softer prices drove a 10 per cent year-over-year jump in home sales over the final six months of last year. Amid a continued unwinding of interest rates, this trend was initially expected to continue into 2025, driving the average sale price higher. Since then, however, trade uncertainties and its implications on labour markets has curbed buyer demand. In March, home sales fell 4.8 per cent monthly. Having now declined for four consecutive months, this translates into a 21 per cent drop since November. Meanwhile, sellers have been eager to capture buyer optimism amid lower mortgage rates. New listings have largely trended up since mid-2024, sitting above the nation’s long-term average. The median price of a single-family home fell 1.1 per cent monthly in March, representing a 1.7 per cent yearly drop.