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Special Report

Employment Research Brief

May 2025

Awaiting Trade Policy Shakeout, Labor Market Makes Steady Progress
While Expectations Continue to Soften

Hiring proceeds despite changing U.S. trade outlook. Exceeding expectations, total employment rose by 177,000 positions last month, keeping gains on par with the monthly average for the past year. The health care and social assistance sectors contributed the most to this growth. Meanwhile, the federal workforce declined by 9,000 roles, bringing total reductions to 26,000 since January. This figure may rise in the future, as workers receiving severance are counted as employed. Unemployment held steady at 4.2 percent, while year-overyear wage growth remained at 3.8 percent, both positive signs for consumer spending potential. Amid shifting policy, many employers appeared hesitant to make drastic changes to their labor needs pending a longer-term perspective on the impact and permanence of current trade conditions, helping ease fears of a rapid fallout in hiring.

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