Retail Sales Research Brief

Spending up but for select categories. While a broad-based pullback in consumer spending appeared to be materializing in April and May, the trajectory of core retail sales shifted course in June, rising 0.6 percent monthly and 4.1 percent year over year. This expectations-exceeding performance suggests that despite concerns surrounding tariffs, overall consumer health remains steadfast. Mirroring recent months, households continued to prioritize spending at necessity-based stores and restaurants — retailers that are mildly to modestly impacted by new tariffs. In contrast, retail segments more exposed to recently enacted duties recorded monthly declines during June, as rising prices for big-ticket items — including appliances and furniture — held back some discretionary spending.