Canada Retail Sales Research Brief

Store receipts rebound but volatility persists. Canadian retail sales rose 1.0 per cent monthly in August, fully offsetting July’s decline and extending the pattern of volatility amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. Despite these trade-related headwinds, auto sales – one of Canada’s most exposed sectors – advanced 1.8 per cent, joined by solid gains in electronics and clothing. Furniture sales, however, fell 2.9 per cent, likely reflecting still in-place retaliatory tariffs. Importantly, inflation-adjusted sales also rose 1.0 per cent, underscoring genuine strength rather than price effects. Even so, the advance estimate for September points to a 0.7 per cent pullback, reaffirming that demand remains uneven amid renewed residential mortgages at higher rates and persistent trade friction. August’s rebound looks more like a brief recovery than the start of a sustained upturn in consumer spending.