Housing Research Brief

Home sales pick up amid lower rates. The number of existing homes sold climbed 4.5 percent year over year in September, the fastest pace so far in 2025. This increase was correlated with a drop in the 30-year mortgage rate to 6.35 percent, the lowest monthly average in a year. Since then, the measure has trended down even further to a weekly mark under 6.20 percent, aligning with a decline in the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which fell below 4.0 percent in late October. Further contraction is not guaranteed, however, especially if inflation stays in the 3 percent zone and U.S. government debt issuance increases. Without a more substantial downshift in mortgage rates, home sales may remain subdued.