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Special Report

Employment Research Brief

October 2025

Cooling Economy Reshapes Migration
Patterns and Bolsters Monetary Easing Outlook

Proxy job data confirms weakening labor conditions.With the federal government shutdown delaying the release of the BLS employment report, markets are left to rely on alternative data sources. With uncertainty surrounding the timeline for reopening, the Federal  Reserve’s late-October meeting may proceed without official payroll  figures. In their absence, the JOLTS survey and private measures like  ADP take on greater weight, which both showed contiued labor market softening. 

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