Retail Sales Research Brief

Alternative measures shed light on retail sales. Following two consecutive months of 0.4 percent real term spending gains, the outlook for September core retail sales was optimistic despite the weakening labor market and tariff-related price pressures. The government shutdown, however, has led to the suspension of official economic data, including the monthly retail sales report, raising questions regarding the direction of consumer spending prior to the holiday shopping season. Fortunately, foot traffic, consumer sentiment and online spending data is published by other sources, providing a window into the retail sales landscape.