Canada Housing Research Brief

Housing market cools as winter months approach. National home sales fell 0.6 per cent monthly in November, lowering the median price of a single-family home by 0.5 per cent. This translated to a 3.5 per cent yearly decrease amid trade uncertainty, affordability challenges, and a tough financing environment. While this signals that the mid-year holding pattern is ongoing, recent monetary policy developments could serve as a catalyst for next year. The Bank of Canada’s rate cuts late in 2025, coupled with expectations for modest downward pressure on long-term bond yields, should slightly improve affordability and lower borrowing costs for potential buyers. This could help sales to increase through 2026 if economic conditions stay stable. Sellers also seem more willing to make concessions late in the year, but the best test of this momentum will be in the upcoming spring market.